Pyramid of Adversary Profiling (POAP) Against Cyber Criminal Groups
The Pyramid of Adversary Profiling (POAP) is an advanced framework designed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the tactics, techniques, and motivations of cyber adversaries.
The Pyramid of Adversary Profiling (POAP) is an advanced framework designed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the tactics, techniques, and motivations of cyber adversaries. When applied to cybercriminal groups—which are often financially driven, opportunistic, and technologically sophisticated—the POAP provides an effective approach for identifying, understanding, and mitigating their attacks.
Why POAP is Effective Against Cyber Criminal Groups
Cybercriminal groups are highly diverse, ranging from small-time hackers to well-organized gangs targeting industries worldwide for financial gain. These groups may exploit vulnerabilities in any organization, often using complex techniques to maximize their profit, such as ransomware attacks, fraud, and theft of sensitive data.
The Pyramid of Adversary Profiling helps defend against cybercriminal groups by offering a structured way to analyze and understand their operations, enabling organizations to proactively protect their assets, anticipate future attacks, and mitigate risks before they escalate.
How POAP Works Against Cyber Criminal Groups
The POAP provides a framework that covers five levels: Who, Why, What, How, and When. Here's how these layers of understanding help in defending against cybercriminal groups:
1️⃣ Who: Adversary Identity
Understanding who the attackers are is critical in identifying cybercriminal groups. These groups often operate under various names (e.g., REvil, Conti, DarkSide), with specific goals, tools, and methods. Knowing their identity helps organizations understand the attack’s potential scope and its targets.
For example, ransomware operators typically use specific infrastructure and software, leaving telltale signs behind. By analyzing the who, defenders can match attacks to known cybercriminal profiles and deploy countermeasures designed for that group’s tactics.
2️⃣ Why: Motivation & Intent
The motivation behind most cybercriminal activities is financial gain—ransom, stealing sensitive data for blackmail, or fraud. Understanding the motive behind the attack helps defenders predict what the attacker might target and how to prevent it.
For instance, a ransomware group would likely target critical business systems (e.g., accounting software, customer databases) that hold high-value data. Understanding that these groups seek monetary compensation enables defenders to prepare their systems for data encryption, backup measures, and resilience strategies.
3️⃣ What: Targeted Assets
Cybercriminal groups often have a clear idea of what they want to steal or exploit. This includes sensitive personal data, financial data, intellectual property, or critical infrastructure. By understanding what is being targeted, organizations can apply additional defenses to those critical assets, ensuring that they are protected.
Examples of targeted assets include:
Customer financial information for fraudulent transactions.
Company intellectual property to be sold on the black market.
Employee credentials to access internal systems for data exfiltration or ransomware deployment.
4️⃣ How: Execution Methods
Cybercriminal groups often use specific TTPs (Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures), including phishing, malware distribution, social engineering, and exploiting software vulnerabilities. Understanding how these criminals execute their attacks enables defenders to deploy specialized defenses such as network segmentation, advanced malware protection, and user awareness training.
For example, if the attackers are known to use phishing to gain access to the network, email filtering solutions, multi-factor authentication (MFA), and user training can be prioritized. Similarly, if remote desktop protocol (RDP) is targeted, solutions like RDP monitoring and stronger access controls can be implemented.
5️⃣ When: Attack Timing
Cybercriminals may choose specific windows of opportunity based on global events (e.g., holiday seasons when businesses may have fewer security resources) or organizational events (e.g., a financial quarter close). Knowing the when helps in timing defenses.
For example, if a cybercriminal group frequently targets organizations during the tax season, the organization can strengthen its defenses around that period, including enhanced monitoring and alerting, additional employee training on phishing awareness, and increased network monitoring.
Example: Using POAP to Defend Against Cybercriminal Groups
Let’s look at a practical example where POAP is applied to defend against a cybercriminal group involved in ransomware attacks targeting a healthcare organization.
1. Who: Adversary Identity
The attacker is identified as a known ransomware group like Conti, which has previously attacked healthcare organizations. The group uses highly targeted tactics, often demanding a large ransom payment and threatening to leak sensitive healthcare data.
2. Why: Motivation & Intent
The primary motivation of the attacker is financial gain. They aim to extort the organization by encrypting their files and demanding a ransom payment to decrypt them. Additionally, the threat of releasing patient data can pressure the organization into complying with the ransom.
3. What: Targeted Assets
The ransomware group is targeting patient records, hospital administrative files, and financial data. These assets are critical for the organization’s operations, and any disruption can lead to significant financial loss and reputational damage.
Protective Measures: The organization applies encryption for sensitive data, ensures data backups are stored offline, and strengthens its access controls to prevent unauthorized access.
4. How: Execution Methods
The attackers likely infiltrate the system using phishing emails with malicious links or attachments, or they exploit vulnerabilities in unpatched software to gain access to the network.
Defensive Measures: The organization implements anti-phishing tools, regular patch management processes, and endpoint protection solutions. Additionally, employee training is conducted to raise awareness of phishing attempts and other social engineering tactics.
5. When: Attack Timing
The group typically launches attacks during periods when the organization is less prepared, such as weekends or public holidays, when staff are less vigilant.
Preventive Measures: The organization strengthens its monitoring systems and deploys incident response teams that are ready to act during these time windows, ensuring that additional resources are in place during critical periods.
Why POAP is Effective Against Cyber Criminal Groups
Comprehensive Profiling: POAP provides a holistic approach to understanding the adversary’s identity, motivations, tactics, and goals. This allows organizations to better predict and prevent attacks.
Dynamic Defense: Cybercriminal groups often change tactics or employ new strategies. POAP’s focus on who and why the adversary is attacking offers a way to adapt to these changes, ensuring defenses remain dynamic and responsive.
Proactive Countermeasures: By focusing on the why and how, POAP helps organizations implement proactive measures (e.g., regular patching, advanced threat detection) to reduce vulnerabilities and prevent attacks from succeeding.
Long-Term Strategy: POAP is designed for long-term defense, especially against persistent and evolving cybercriminal groups. It allows organizations to stay one step ahead by continuously assessing adversary profiles and adjusting defenses.
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